Irregular earthquake recurrence patterns and slip-variability on the Dead Sea Fault in northern Israel

ד"ר נטע וקסלר, החוג למדעי כדור הארץ, אוניברסיטת תל אביב

We resolved the long-term rupture history and displacements on buried stream channels that record the past 3,400 years of activity for the Jordan Gorge (JGF) section of the Dead Sea fault in Israel. Our results indicate that: 1) the past 1200 years appear to significantly lack slip, which may portend a significant increase in future seismic activity; 2) short-term slip rates for the past two millennia have varied by more than a factor of two and suggest that past behavior is best characterized by clustering of earthquakes. 3) the rate of earthquake production does not produce a time predictable pattern over a period of 2 kyr. From these observations, the model that best fits the Jordan Gorge fault is a “weak segment model” where the relatively short JGF is bound by releasing steps that fail on their own in moderate earthquakes, or rupture with adjacent segments. We conclude that deriving on-fault slip-rates and earthquake recurrence patterns from a single site and/or over a short time period can produce misleading results and lead to biased hazard assessments

תאריך 4/12/2016 10:30 12:00
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